Last update: Oct 2019
Karin van der Wiel
www.karinvanderwiel.nl | firstname.lastname@example.org | +31 (0)30 2206 783
Hi, I'm Karin.
I work as a postdoctoral scientist at the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), in the R&D weather and climate modelling department.
My research focuses on extreme weather and climate events, and how these influence society or ecosystems. For example, extreme precipitation events and consequent flooding, or the sensitivity of renewable power systems to meteorological variability.
With my work I hope to contribute to increasing our understanding of Earth’s weather and climate in a way that is useful for society.
Please be in contact with any questions, requests for PDFs of publications or anything else. Thank you for visiting!
Van der Wiel et al., 2018: 100-year Lower Mississippi floods in a global climate model: characteristics and future changes
Van Oldenborgh et al., 2017: Attribution of extreme rainfall from Hurricane Harvey, August 2017
Van der Wiel et al., 2017: Rapid attribution of the August 2016 flood-inducing extreme precipitation in south Louisiana to climate change.
→ See also the FAQs prepared for broad interest
Van der Wiel et al., 2016: The resolution dependence of contiguous U.S. precipitation extremes in response to CO2 forcing.
Extreme precipitation, very heavy rainfall, can occur on a whole range of time scales and may be the result of various meteorological conditions. Depending on local land conditions and land-atmosphere interactions, these heavy rain conditions may lead to flooding and therewith increase societal risks. From physical principles, related to the amount of water vapour air can hold, we expect extreme precipitation events to become more intense with global climate change.
At NOAA GFDL we investigated how precipitation extremes are represented in various GFDL global climate models of different horizontal resolution. Increased resolution improves the quality of simulated extremes: precipitation intensity, spatial patterns and seasonality. We further showed that the climate change projections depend on model resolution, adding uncertainty to existing estimates from -generally- relatively low resolution models. It is difficult to identify trends in the observed record due to large internal variability.
The GFDL climate model includes as the first global GCM a river routing model. In a follow-up study we used this feature to identify the atmospheric and land processes that lead to extreme high river discharge. In the model extreme Lower Mississippi floods are caused by a combination of high snow melt and precipitation. Maybe due to opposite trends in these two variables, the model does not show increases or decreases in flood likelihood.
For the heavy rainfall event in southern Louisiana of August 2016, that resulted in devastating flooding, I was part of a team of WWA-scientists who investigated the climatological statistics of this event. The results of our rapid attribution were reported by various media. A selection: EN: NOAA, New York Times, Washington Post, CNN, Associated Press, USA Today, The Guardian (1), The Guardian (2), TIME, Rolling Stone, climate.gov, WIRED, NationSwell, The Times Picayune, Inside Climate News, Climate Central, Science Museum of Virginia, NL: KNMI.
A similar attribution analysis was performed for the extreme rainfall from Hurricane Harvey, August 2017 in Houston, TX, USA. These results were reported in, among others: EN: Washington Post, New York Times, The Guardian, Daily Mail, Associated Press, AGU, National Geographic, CarbonBrief, Popular Science, Delta, Futurity, NL: KNMI. At the 2017 AGU fall meeting I participated in a press conference discussing this paper: video.
Interview in NRC newspaper
A big background article in the NRC national newspaper on drought in the Netherlands. Read it here (in Dutch).
New paper on extreme impacts
A paper resulting from work in the HiWAVES3 project has been published in Environmental Research Letters. We show that extreme weather does not necessarily lead to extreme impacts, compounding effects of mild but 'bad' weather can lead to more extreme impacts. Such non-linear relationships between meteorology and societal impacts can lead to underestimations of risk. We therefore argue for more collaboration between traditional climate scientists and more applied climate impact scientists. Read it here (open-access).
DAMOCLES training school on compound events
I will be part of the DAMOCLES training school on compound events, supervising a small group of students on their research project.
In review/in press
|xxvi.||SY Philip, SF Kew, K van der Wiel, N Wanders, GJ van Oldenborgh: Regional differentiation in climate change induced drought trends in the Netherlands. Environmental Research Letters. In press. |
|xxv.||SF Kew, SY Philip, M Hauser, M Hobbins, N Wanders, GJ van Oldenborgh, K van der Wiel, TIE Veldkamp, J Kimutai, C Funk, FEL Otto: Impact of precipitation and increasing temperatures on drought in eastern Africa. Earth System Dynamics. Open discussion. |
|xxiv.||Nanditha JS, K van der Wiel, U Bhatia, D Stone, FM Selten, V Mishra (2020): A seven-fold rise in the probability of exceeding the observed hottest summer in India in a 2°C warmer world. Environmental Research Letters, 15, pp. 044028. |
|xxiii.||K van der Wiel, FM Selten, R Bintanja, R Blackport, JA Screen (2020): Ensemble climate-impact modelling: extreme impacts from moderate meteorological conditions. Environmental Research Letters, 15, pp. 034050. |
|xxii.||R Bintanja, K van der Wiel, EC van der Linden, J Reusen, L Bogerd, F Krikken, FM Selten (2020): Strong future increases in Arctic precipitation variability linked to poleward moisture transport. Science Advances, 6, pp. eaax6869. |
|xxi.||A Sebastian, A Gori, RB Blessing, K van der Wiel and B Bass (2019): Disentangling the impacts of human and environmental change on catchment response during Hurricane Harvey. Environmental Research Letters, 14, pp. 124023. |
|xx.||GA Vecchi, T Delworth, H Murakami, SD Underwood, AT Wittenberg, F Zeng, W Zhang, J Baldwin, K Bhatia, W Cooke, J He, SB Kapnick, T Knutson, G Villarini, K van der Wiel, W Anderson, V Balaji, J-H Chen, K Dixon, R Gudgel, L Harris, L Jia, NC Johnson, S-J Lin, M Liu, J Ng, A Rosati, J Smith, X Yang (2019): Tropical cyclone sensitivities to CO2 doubling: Roles of atmospheric resolution, synoptic variability and background climate changes. Climate Dynamics, 53, pp. 5999–6033. |
|xix.||K van der Wiel, HC Bloomfield, RW Lee, LP Stoop, R Blackport, JA Screen, FM Selten (2019): The influence of weather regimes on European renewable energy production and demand. Environmental Research Letters, 14, pp. 094010. |
|xviii.||R Blackport, JA Screen, K van der Wiel, R Bintanja (2019): Minimal influence of reduced Arctic sea ice on coincident cold winters in mid-latitudes. Nature Climate Change, 9, pp. 697-704. |
|xvii.||K van der Wiel, LP Stoop, BRH van Zuijlen, R Blackport, MA van den Broek, FM Selten (2019): Meteorological conditions leading to extreme low variable renewable energy production and extreme high energy shortfall. Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews, 111, pp. 261-275. |
|xvi.||K van der Wiel, N Wanders, FM Selten, MFP Bierkens (2019): Added value of large ensemble simulations for assessing extreme river discharge in a 2 °C warmer world. Geophysical Research Letters, 46, pp. 2093-2102. |
|xv.||S Philip, S Sparrow, SF Kew, K van der Wiel, N Wanders, R Singh, A Hassan, K Mohammed, H Javid, K Haustein, FEL Otto, F Hirpa, RH Rimi, AKM Saiful Islam, DCH Wallom, and GJ van Oldenborgh (2019): Attributing the 2017 Bangladesh floods from meteorological and hydrological perspectives. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 23, pp. 1409-1429. Highlighted article. |
|xiv.||K van der Wiel, SB Kapnick, GA Vecchi, JA Smith, PCD Milly, L Jia (2018): 100-year Lower Mississippi floods in a global climate model: characteristics and future changes. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 19, pp. 1547-1563. |
|xiii.||L Krishnamurthy, GA Vecchi, X Yang, K van der Wiel, V Balaji, SB Kapnick, L Jia, F Zeng, K Paffendorf, S Underwood (2018): Causes and probability of occurrence of extreme precipitation events like Chennai 2015. Journal of Climate, 31, pp. 3831–3848. |
|xii.||FEL Otto, K van der Wiel, GJ van Oldenborgh, S Philip, S Kew, P Uhe, H Cullen (2018): Climate change increases the probability of heavy rains in Northern England/Southern Scotland like those of storm Desmond - a real-time event attribution revisited. Environmental Research Letters, 13, pp. 024006. |
|xi.|| GJ van Oldenborgh, K van der Wiel, A Sebastian, R Singh, J Arrighi, FEL Otto, K Haustein, S Li, GA Vecchi, H Cullen (2017): Attribution of extreme rainfall from Hurricane Harvey, August 2017. Environmental Research Letters, 12, pp. 124009. Featured article. |
|x.||K van der Wiel, ST Gille, SG Llewellyn Smith, PF Linden, C Cenedese (2017): Characteristics of colliding sea breeze gravity current fronts: a laboratory study. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 143, pp. 1434-1441. |
|ix.||K van der Wiel, SB Kapnick, GJ van Oldenborgh, K Whan, S Philip, GA Vecchi, RK Singh, J Arrighi, H Cullen (2017): Rapid attribution of the August 2016 flood-inducing extreme precipitation in south Louisiana to climate change. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 21, pp. 897-921. Highlighted article. |
|viii.||K van der Wiel, SB Kapnick, GA Vecchi (2017): Shifting patterns of mild weather in response to projected radiative forcing. Climatic Change, 140, pp. 649-658. |
|vii.||K van der Wiel, SB Kapnick, GA Vecchi, WF Cooke, TL Delworth, L Jia, H Murakami, S Underwood, F Zeng (2016): The resolution dependence of contiguous U.S. precipitation extremes in response to CO2 forcing. Journal of Climate, 29, pp. 7991-8012. |
|vi.||MA Stiller-Reeve, C Heuzé, WT Ball, RH White, G Messori, K van der Wiel, I Medhaug, AH Eckes, A O'Callaghan, MJ Newland, SR Williams, M Kasoar, HE Wittmeier and V Kumer (2016): Improving together: better science writing through peer learning. Hydrology and Earth System Science, 20, pp. 2965-2973. |
|v.||K van der Wiel, AJ Matthews, MM Joshi, DP Stevens (2016): The influence of diabatic heating in the South Pacific Convergence Zone on Rossby wave propagation and the mean flow. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 142, pp. 901-910. |
|iv.||K van der Wiel, AJ Matthews, MM Joshi, DP Stevens (2016): Why the South Pacific Convergence Zone is diagonal. Climate Dynamics, 46, pp. 1683-1698. |
|iii.||K van der Wiel, AJ Matthews, DP Stevens, MM Joshi (2015): A dynamical framework for the origin of the diagonal South Pacific and South Atlantic Convergence Zones. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 141, pp. 1997-2010. Featured article. |
|ii.||MM Joshi, M Stringer, K van der Wiel, A O'Callaghan, S Fueglistaler (2015): IGCM4: A fast, parallel and flexible intermediate climate model. Geoscientific Model Development, 8, pp. 1157-1167. |
|i.||W Hazeleger, X Wang, C Severijns, S Ştefănescu, R Bintanja, A Sterl, K Wyser, T Semmler, S Yang, B van den Hurk, T van Noije, E van der Linden, K van der Wiel (2012): EC-Earth V2.2: description and validation of a new seamless earth system prediction model. Climate Dynamics, 39, pp. 2611-2629. |
A pdf-version of my C.V. is available here.
Dr Karin van der Wiel
Royal Netherlands Meteorological InstitutePostbus 2013730 AE De BiltNetherlands
Phone: +31 (0)30 2206 783E-mail: email@example.com