Last update: Jul 2020
Karin van der Wiel
www.karinvanderwiel.nl | wiel@knmi.nl | +31 (0)30 2206 783
Hi, I'm Karin.
I work as a scientist at the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), in the R&D weather and climate modelling department.
My research focuses on extreme weather and climate events, and how these influence society or ecosystems. For example, extreme precipitation events and consequent flooding, or the sensitivity of renewable power systems to meteorological variability. Furthermore, I am involved in making the next generation of KNMI climate scenarios for the Netherlands (to be published in 2021 and 2023).
With my work I hope to contribute to increasing our understanding of Earth’s weather and climate in a way that is useful for society.
Please be in contact with any questions, requests for PDFs of publications or anything else. Thank you for visiting!
Research projects
Large ensemble modelling
Renewable energy transition
Extreme precipitation & flooding
Mild weather
Diagonal convergence zones
Converging sea breezes
News
Feb 2021 | Japanese International workshop on storylines |
I was honoured to participate and talk in the workshop on storylines, . | |
Jan 2021 | New paper on changing climate extremes |
Happy new year! The year starts well, with a new paper published in Communications Earth and Environment. We developed an extension of the concept of Probability Ratio (PR) to split changes in extreme events in a part due to mean climate change and in a part due to changing climate variability. For monthly heat extremes we show that changes are dominated by increasing mean temperatures, whereas for monthly heavy-rainfall extremes the change of precipitation variability is also relevant. Read it here (open-access). | |
Nov 2020 | Dutch National delta Congress 2020 |
I spoke about drought at the Dutch National Delta Congress. In the afternoon session 'Drought management: the new water management?!', I discussed the influence of climate change on drought in the Netherlands. The video of the session is available here here, my part starts at 11 minutes. |
Publications
In press
| xxxiv. | GJ van Oldenborgh, K van der Wiel, S Kew, S Philip, F Otto, R Vautard, A King, F Lott, J Arrighi, R Singh, M van Aalst: Pathways and pitfalls in extreme event attribution. Climatic Change. In press. |
Peer-reviewed
| xxxiii. | G van Kempen, K van der Wiel, LA Melsen (2021): The impact of hydrological model structure on the simulation of extreme runoff events. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 21, pp. 961-976. |
| xxxii. | J Vogel, P Rivoire, C Deidda, L Rahimi, CA Sauter, E Tschumi, K van der Wiel, T Zhang, J Zschleischler (2021): Identifying meteorological drivers of extreme impacts: an application to simulated crop yields. Earth System Dynamics, 12, pp. 151-172. |
| xxxi. | PNJ Bonekamp, N Wanders, K van der Wiel, AF Lutz, WW Immerzeel (2021): Using large ensemble modelling to derive future changes in mountain specific climate indicators in a 2 °C and 3 °C warmer world in High Mountain Asia. International Journal of Climatology, 41, pp. E964-E979. |
| xxx. | SF Kew, SY Philip, M Hauser, M Hobbins, N Wanders, GJ van Oldenborgh, K van der Wiel, TIE Veldkamp, J Kimutai, C Funk, FEL Otto (2021): Impact of precipitation and increasing temperatures on drought in eastern Africa. Earth System Dynamics, 12, pp. 17-35. |
| xxix. | K van der Wiel, R Bintanja (2021): Contribution of climatic changes in mean and variability to monthly temperature and precipitation extremes. Communications Earth and Environment, 2, pp. 1-11. |
| xxviii. | S Vijverberg, M Schmeits, K van der Wiel, D Coumou (2020): Sub-seasonal statistical forecasts of eastern United States hot temperature events. Monthly Weather Review, 148, pp. 4799-4822. |
| xxvii. | SY Philip, SF Kew, GJ van Oldenborgh, F Otto, R Vautard, K van der Wiel, A King, F Lott, J Arrighi, R Singh, M van Aalst (2020): A protocol for probabilistic extreme event attribution analyses. Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography, 6, pp. 177-203. |
| xxvi. | JR Brown, M Lengaigne, BR Lintner, MJ Widlansky, K van der Wiel, C Dutheil, BK Linsley, AJ Matthews, J Renwick (2020): South Pacific Convergence Zone dynamics, variability, and impacts in a changing climate. Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, 1, pp. 530-543. |
| xxv. | SY Philip, SF Kew, K van der Wiel, N Wanders, GJ van Oldenborgh (2020): Regional differentiation in climate change induced drought trends in the Netherlands. Environmental Research Letters, 15, pp. 094081. |
| xxiv. | Nanditha JS, K van der Wiel, U Bhatia, D Stone, FM Selten, V Mishra (2020): A seven-fold rise in the probability of exceeding the observed hottest summer in India in a 2°C warmer world. Environmental Research Letters, 15, pp. 044028. |
| xxiii. | K van der Wiel, FM Selten, R Bintanja, R Blackport, JA Screen (2020): Ensemble climate-impact modelling: extreme impacts from moderate meteorological conditions. Environmental Research Letters, 15, pp. 034050. |
| xxii. | R Bintanja, K van der Wiel, EC van der Linden, J Reusen, L Bogerd, F Krikken, FM Selten (2020): Strong future increases in Arctic precipitation variability linked to poleward moisture transport. Science Advances, 6, pp. eaax6869. |
| xxi. | A Sebastian, A Gori, RB Blessing, K van der Wiel and B Bass (2019): Disentangling the impacts of human and environmental change on catchment response during Hurricane Harvey. Environmental Research Letters, 14, pp. 124023. |
| xx. | GA Vecchi, T Delworth, H Murakami, SD Underwood, AT Wittenberg, F Zeng, W Zhang, J Baldwin, K Bhatia, W Cooke, J He, SB Kapnick, T Knutson, G Villarini, K van der Wiel, W Anderson, V Balaji, J-H Chen, K Dixon, R Gudgel, L Harris, L Jia, NC Johnson, S-J Lin, M Liu, J Ng, A Rosati, J Smith, X Yang (2019): Tropical cyclone sensitivities to CO2 doubling: Roles of atmospheric resolution, synoptic variability and background climate changes. Climate Dynamics, 53, pp. 5999–6033. |
| xix. | K van der Wiel, HC Bloomfield, RW Lee, LP Stoop, R Blackport, JA Screen, FM Selten (2019): The influence of weather regimes on European renewable energy production and demand. Environmental Research Letters, 14, pp. 094010. |
| xviii. | R Blackport, JA Screen, K van der Wiel, R Bintanja (2019): Minimal influence of reduced Arctic sea ice on coincident cold winters in mid-latitudes. Nature Climate Change, 9, pp. 697-704. |
| xvii. | K van der Wiel, LP Stoop, BRH van Zuijlen, R Blackport, MA van den Broek, FM Selten (2019): Meteorological conditions leading to extreme low variable renewable energy production and extreme high energy shortfall. Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews, 111, pp. 261-275. |
| xvi. | K van der Wiel, N Wanders, FM Selten, MFP Bierkens (2019): Added value of large ensemble simulations for assessing extreme river discharge in a 2 °C warmer world. Geophysical Research Letters, 46, pp. 2093-2102. |
| xv. | S Philip, S Sparrow, SF Kew, K van der Wiel, N Wanders, R Singh, A Hassan, K Mohammed, H Javid, K Haustein, FEL Otto, F Hirpa, RH Rimi, AKM Saiful Islam, DCH Wallom, and GJ van Oldenborgh (2019): Attributing the 2017 Bangladesh floods from meteorological and hydrological perspectives. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 23, pp. 1409-1429. Highlighted article. |
| xiv. | K van der Wiel, SB Kapnick, GA Vecchi, JA Smith, PCD Milly, L Jia (2018): 100-year Lower Mississippi floods in a global climate model: characteristics and future changes. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 19, pp. 1547-1563. |
| xiii. | L Krishnamurthy, GA Vecchi, X Yang, K van der Wiel, V Balaji, SB Kapnick, L Jia, F Zeng, K Paffendorf, S Underwood (2018): Causes and probability of occurrence of extreme precipitation events like Chennai 2015. Journal of Climate, 31, pp. 3831–3848. |
| xii. | FEL Otto, K van der Wiel, GJ van Oldenborgh, S Philip, S Kew, P Uhe, H Cullen (2018): Climate change increases the probability of heavy rains in Northern England/Southern Scotland like those of storm Desmond - a real-time event attribution revisited. Environmental Research Letters, 13, pp. 024006. |
| xi. | GJ van Oldenborgh, K van der Wiel, A Sebastian, R Singh, J Arrighi, FEL Otto, K Haustein, S Li, GA Vecchi, H Cullen (2017): Attribution of extreme rainfall from Hurricane Harvey, August 2017. Environmental Research Letters, 12, pp. 124009. Featured article. |
| x. | K van der Wiel, ST Gille, SG Llewellyn Smith, PF Linden, C Cenedese (2017): Characteristics of colliding sea breeze gravity current fronts: a laboratory study. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 143, pp. 1434-1441. |
| ix. | K van der Wiel, SB Kapnick, GJ van Oldenborgh, K Whan, S Philip, GA Vecchi, RK Singh, J Arrighi, H Cullen (2017): Rapid attribution of the August 2016 flood-inducing extreme precipitation in south Louisiana to climate change. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 21, pp. 897-921. Highlighted article. |
| viii. | K van der Wiel, SB Kapnick, GA Vecchi (2017): Shifting patterns of mild weather in response to projected radiative forcing. Climatic Change, 140, pp. 649-658. |
| vii. | K van der Wiel, SB Kapnick, GA Vecchi, WF Cooke, TL Delworth, L Jia, H Murakami, S Underwood, F Zeng (2016): The resolution dependence of contiguous U.S. precipitation extremes in response to CO2 forcing. Journal of Climate, 29, pp. 7991-8012. |
| vi. | MA Stiller-Reeve, C Heuzé, WT Ball, RH White, G Messori, K van der Wiel, I Medhaug, AH Eckes, A O'Callaghan, MJ Newland, SR Williams, M Kasoar, HE Wittmeier and V Kumer (2016): Improving together: better science writing through peer learning. Hydrology and Earth System Science, 20, pp. 2965-2973. |
| v. | K van der Wiel, AJ Matthews, MM Joshi, DP Stevens (2016): The influence of diabatic heating in the South Pacific Convergence Zone on Rossby wave propagation and the mean flow. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 142, pp. 901-910. |
| iv. | K van der Wiel, AJ Matthews, MM Joshi, DP Stevens (2016): Why the South Pacific Convergence Zone is diagonal. Climate Dynamics, 46, pp. 1683-1698. |
| iii. | K van der Wiel, AJ Matthews, DP Stevens, MM Joshi (2015): A dynamical framework for the origin of the diagonal South Pacific and South Atlantic Convergence Zones. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 141, pp. 1997-2010. Featured article. |
| ii. | MM Joshi, M Stringer, K van der Wiel, A O'Callaghan, S Fueglistaler (2015): IGCM4: A fast, parallel and flexible intermediate climate model. Geoscientific Model Development, 8, pp. 1157-1167. |
| i. | W Hazeleger, X Wang, C Severijns, S Ştefănescu, R Bintanja, A Sterl, K Wyser, T Semmler, S Yang, B van den Hurk, T van Noije, E van der Linden, K van der Wiel (2012): EC-Earth V2.2: description and validation of a new seamless earth system prediction model. Climate Dynamics, 39, pp. 2611-2629. |
Other publications, non peer-reviewed
| • | K van der Wiel (2015): Mechanisms for the existence of diagonal Southern Hemisphere convergence zones. PhD thesis, University of East Anglia, 133 pp. |
| • | K van der Wiel (2013): On the collision of sea breeze gravity currents. In Proceedings of the 2013 Summer Program in Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Woods Hole, MA, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute. |
| • | K van der Wiel (2011): Exploring interannual to decadal variability in the tropical Pacific region in the EC-Earth Model. MSc dissertation, Wageningen University, 39 pp. |
Presentations (presenting author only)
| • | Japan international workshop on storylines (February 2021) - Physical storylines of future European drought events like 2018 based on ensemble climate modelling |
| • | National deltacongress (November 2020) - Droogte in het KNMI klimaatsignaal |
| • | Springtij festival (September 2020) - (Stads)klimaat- en verandering |
| • | SMILE webinar (September 2020) - Ensemble climate-impact modelling: extreme impacts from moderate meteorological conditions - video registration |
| • | Hydrology and quantitative water management, Wageningen University (April 2020) - Attribution of rainfall on the U.S. Gulf coast |
| • | EUCP General Assembly (March 2020) - Storylines from large ensembles |
| • | Eindhoven Physics Symposium, Technical University Eindhoven (November 2019) - Weather of the energy transition |
| • | Netherlands Association for the promotion of Meteorology autumn symposium (November 2019) - Dynamics of the diagonal South Pacific Convergence Zone |
| • | Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (September 2019): Wind droughts and winter cold threaten Europe’s future energy security - abstract |
| • | Meteorology and Air Quality, Wageningen University (September 2019): Wind droughts and winter cold threaten Europe’s future energy security |
| • | Physical modelling supporting a storyline approach workshop, Oslo (April 2019): Extreme impacts from moderate meteorology |
| • | European Geophysical Union Meeting General Assembly 2019, Vienna (April 2019): Wind droughts and winter cold threaten Europe's future energy security - abstract, e-presentation |
| • | NCAS-Climate Science Meeting, University of Reading, Reading (February 2019): Extreme impacts from moderate meteorology |
| • | Geo seminar, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg (November 2018): Extreme impacts from moderate meteorology |
| • | SPARC General Assembly, Kyoto (October 2018): More accurate assessment of climate induced impacts |
| • | Mathematics seminar, University of Exeter, Exeter (May 2018): U.S. precipitation extremes and flooding in GFDL climate models |
| • | European Geophysical Union Meeting General Assembly 2018, Vienna (April 2018): More accurate assessment of climate induced impacts - abstract |
| • | European Geophysical Union Meeting General Assembly 2018, Vienna (April 2018): Time of emergence of Arctic climate change - abstract |
| • | American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting 2017, New Orleans (December 2017): Characteristics and future changes of great Mississippi flood events in a global coupled climate model - abstract |
| • | American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting 2017, New Orleans (December 2017): Attribution of extreme rainfall from Hurricane Harvey, August 2017 - abstract, e-poster |
| • | IIT Delhi, Centre of Excellence in Climate Modelling, New Delhi (November 2017): A new approach to study climate induced impacts |
| • | IIT Gandhinagar, Gandhinagar (November 2017): A new approach to study climate induced impacts |
| • | UEA Atmosphere, Ocean and Climate Seminar, UEA, School of Environmental Sciences (June 2017): U.S. extreme precipitation and river flooding in GFDL climate models |
| • | European Geophysical Union Meeting General Assembly 2017, Vienna (April 2017): Meteorological conditions for extreme crop yield seasons - abstract |
| • | European Geophysical Union Meeting General Assembly 2017, Vienna (April 2017): Challenges and possibilities for attribution studies in developing countries: Ethiopian drought of 2015 - abstract |
| • | European Geophysical Union Meeting General Assembly 2017, Vienna (April 2017): Shifting patterns of mild weather in response to projected radiative forcing - abstract, e-presentation |
| • | Addressing the challenge of compound events workshop, Zürich (April 2017): Meteorological conditions for extreme crop yield seasons |
| • | Meteorology and Air Quality, Wageningen University (January 2017): U.S. precipitation extremes in GFDL climate models |
| • | Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (November 2016): U.S. extreme precipitation and river flooding in GFDL climate models |
| • | GLP 3rd open science meeting (October 2016): HiWAVES3- High Impact Weather Events in EurAsia Selected, Simulated and Storified |
| • | Conversations on the Environment, Responsible Energy and Life (CEREAL), Princeton University, Carbon Mitigation Initiative (September 2016): Rapid attribution of the south Louisiana heavy precipitation to climate change |
| • | MIT Atmospheric Science Seminar, MIT, Department of Earth Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences (September 2016): U.S. extreme precipitation and river flooding in GFDL climate models |
| • | Lamont Ocean & Climate Physics Seminar, Columbia University, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (September 2016): U.S. extreme precipitation and river flooding in GFDL climate models |
| • | Climate Dynamics group, Rutgers University (July 2016): The resolution dependence of US precipitation extremes in response to CO2 forcing |
| • | Dynamical Core Intercomparison Project 2016, Boulder (June 2016): The resolution dependence of US precipitation extremes in response to CO2 forcing - e-poster |
| • | EnvEast NERC doctoral training presentation, UK MetOffice (March 2015): A dynamical framework for the origin of the diagonal SPCZ and SACZ |
| • | UEA Atmosphere, Ocean and Climate Seminar, UEA, School of Environmental Sciences (February 2015): Mechanisms for the existence of diagonal Southern Hemisphere convergence zones |
| • | American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting 2014, San Francisco (December 2014): A dynamical framework for the origin of the diagonal SPCZ and SACZ - abstract, e-poster |
| • | Applied Maths Research Seminar, UEA, School of Mathematics (November 2013): Colliding sea breeze gravity currents |
| • | GFD lab lunch seminar, University of Cambridge, DAMPT (October 2013): Colliding sea breeze gravity currents |
| • | Royal Meteorological Society Student Conference 2013, Reading (September 2013): A dynamical framework for the origin of the diagonal SPCZ and SACZ |
| • | GFD fellow presentation, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, (August 2013): Colliding sea breeze gravity currents |
World Weather Attribution projects
KNMI 'climate messages'
I am part of the core team that aims to publish a 'climate message' a week (previously 3 times a week) to communicate relevant news and scientific findings to a greater public. A list of the published messages (in Dutch) can be found here. My contributions below.
Meteorologica
Meteorologica is the magazine of the Dutch Association for the Promotion of Meteorology.
| • | March 2019 - Winddroogtes en winterkou bedreigen Europese energiezekerheid |
| • | September 2017 - Orkaan Harvey: een meter neerslag in Houston, klimaatverandering? |
| • | June 2017 - Mooi weer op komst? |
ClimateSnack
ClimateSnack (now SciSnack) is a global community of early-career scientists that work together to improve their writing and communications skills. There are writing groups at different universities, one of which I co-founded at UEA. Below are the blog posts I wrote during that time:
| • | October 2015 - How to respond to climate science denial |
| • | July 2015 - Characteristics of climate science denial |
| • | February 2015 - Flood management below sea level - strategies from the Netherlands |
| • | June 2014 - El Nino: a historical exploration and 2014 outlook |
| • | January 2014 - Excitement at the front: one island, two sea breezes |
Other
| • | February 2019 - HEPEX blog: Large ensemble simulations for the study of extreme hydrological events |
| • | February 2021 - Geografie article: Windstiltes en winterkou bedreigen Europese energiezekerheid |
Curriculum Vitae
A pdf-version of my C.V. is available here.
Contact
Dr Karin van der Wiel
Royal Netherlands Meteorological InstitutePostbus 2013730 AE De BiltNetherlands
Phone: +31 (0)30 2206 783 ← Temporarily working from home, hence no office phone.E-mail: wiel@knmi.nl
Google Scholar: list of publicationsScopus: list of publicationsORCID: personal IDResearchGate: personal profileLinkedIn: personal profile Twitter: karin_vdwiel
© 2020