Karin van der Wiel

www.karinvanderwiel.nl | wiel@knmi.nl | +31 (0)30 2206 783




Hi, I'm Karin.

I work as a scientist at the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), in the R&D weather and climate modelling department.

My research focuses on extreme weather and climate events, and how these influence society or ecosystems. For example, extreme precipitation events and consequent flooding, or the sensitivity of renewable power systems to meteorological variability. Furthermore, I am involved in making the next generation of KNMI climate scenarios for the Netherlands (to be published in 2021 and 2023).

With my work I hope to contribute to increasing our understanding of Earth’s weather and climate in a way that is useful for society.

Please be in contact with any questions, requests for PDFs of publications or anything else. Thank you for visiting!


Research projects

Large ensemble modelling

Renewable energy transition

Extreme precipitation & flooding

Mild weather

Diagonal convergence zones

Converging sea breezes


News

 

Jul 2021

EMS Young Scientist Award

I am very honoured to have been awarded the 'EMS young scientist award'. The award recognises my work up to this point, but especially the study on renewable energy (published in RSER).

May 2021

Webinar platform WOW

Together with NOS weather presentor Peter Kuipers Munneke I provided the opening of a webinar series on 'Weather extremes and the water sector'. The registration (Dutch) is available here.

May 2021

Postdoc wanted

For the KNMI VAREX project, we are looking for an enthusiastic postdoc. We hope to find someone with experience in climate modelling and understanding of climatic processes.

 

Publications

Peer-reviewed

xxxvi. K van der Wiel, G Lenderink, H de Vries (2021): Physical storylines of future European drought events like 2018 based on ensemble climate modelling. Weather and Climate Extremes, 33, pp. 100350.

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xxxv. R Sperna Weiland, K van der Wiel, F M Selten, D Coumou (2021): Intransitive atmosphere dynamics leading to persistent hot-dry or cold-wet European summers. Journal of Climate, 34, pp. 6303-6317.

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xxxiv. GJ van Oldenborgh, K van der Wiel, S Kew, S Philip, F Otto, R Vautard, A King, F Lott, J Arrighi, R Singh, M van Aalst (2021): Pathways and pitfalls in extreme event attribution. Climatic Change, 166, pp. 13.

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xxxiii. G van Kempen, K van der Wiel, LA Melsen (2021): The impact of hydrological model structure on the simulation of extreme runoff events. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 21, pp. 961-976.

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xxxii. J Vogel, P Rivoire, C Deidda, L Rahimi, CA Sauter, E Tschumi, K van der Wiel, T Zhang, J Zschleischler (2021): Identifying meteorological drivers of extreme impacts: an application to simulated crop yields. Earth System Dynamics, 12, pp. 151-172.

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xxxi. PNJ Bonekamp, N Wanders, K van der Wiel, AF Lutz, WW Immerzeel (2021): Using large ensemble modelling to derive future changes in mountain specific climate indicators in a 2 °C and 3 °C warmer world in High Mountain Asia. International Journal of Climatology, 41, pp. E964-E979.

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Natural disasters in High Mountain Asia (HMA) are largely induced by precipitation and temperatures extremes. Precipitation extremes will change due to global warming, but these low frequency events are difficult to analyse using (short) observed time series. In this study we analysed large 2000 year ensembles of present day climate and of a 2 °C and 3 °C warmer world produced with the EC‐EARTH model. We performed a regional assessment of climate indicators related to temperature and precipitation (positive degree days, accumulated precipitation, (pre‐ and post‐) monsoon precipitation), their sensitivity to temperature change and the change in return periods of extreme temperature and precipitation in a 2 and 3 °C warmer climate.
In general, the 2 °C warmer world shows a homogeneous response of changes in climate indicators and return periods, while distinct differences between regions are present in a 3 °C warmer world and changes no longer follow a general trend. This non‐linear effect can indicate the presence of a tipping point in the climate system. The most affected regions are located in monsoon‐dominated regions, where precipitation amounts, positive degree days, extreme temperature, extreme precipitation and compound events are projected to increase the most. Largest changes in climate indicators are found in East Himalaya, followed by the Hindu Kush and West and Central Himalaya regions. Western regions will experience drier summers and wetter winters, while monsoon dominated regions drier winters and wetter summers and Northern regions a wetter climate year round. We also found that precipitation increases in HMA in a 3 °C warmer world are substantially larger (13%) compared to the global average (5.9%). Additionally, the increase in weather extremes will exacerbate natural hazards with large possible impacts for mountain communities. The results of this study could provide important guidance for formulating climate change adaptation strategies in HMA.

xxx. SF Kew, SY Philip, M Hauser, M Hobbins, N Wanders, GJ van Oldenborgh, K van der Wiel, TIE Veldkamp, J Kimutai, C Funk, FEL Otto (2021): Impact of precipitation and increasing temperatures on drought in eastern Africa. Earth System Dynamics, 12, pp. 17-35.

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xxix. K van der Wiel, R Bintanja (2021): Contribution of climatic changes in mean and variability to monthly temperature and precipitation extremes. Communications Earth and Environment, 2, pp. 1-11.

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xxviii. S Vijverberg, M Schmeits, K van der Wiel, D Coumou (2020): Sub-seasonal statistical forecasts of eastern United States hot temperature events. Monthly Weather Review, 148, pp. 4799-4822.

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xxvii. SY Philip, SF Kew, GJ van Oldenborgh, F Otto, R Vautard, K van der Wiel, A King, F Lott, J Arrighi, R Singh, M van Aalst (2020): A protocol for probabilistic extreme event attribution analyses. Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography, 6, pp. 177-203.

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xxvi.  JR Brown, M Lengaigne, BR Lintner, MJ Widlansky, K van der Wiel, C Dutheil, BK Linsley, AJ Matthews, J Renwick (2020): South Pacific Convergence Zone dynamics, variability, and impacts in a changing climate. Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, 1, pp. 530-543.

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xxv. SY Philip, SF Kew, K van der Wiel, N Wanders, GJ van Oldenborgh (2020): Regional differentiation in climate change induced drought trends in the Netherlands. Environmental Research Letters, 15, pp. 094081.

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xxiv. Nanditha JS, K van der Wiel, U Bhatia, D Stone, FM Selten, V Mishra (2020): A seven-fold rise in the probability of exceeding the observed hottest summer in India in a 2°C warmer world. Environmental Research Letters, 15, pp. 044028.

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xxiii. K van der Wiel, FM Selten, R Bintanja, R Blackport, JA Screen (2020): Ensemble climate-impact modelling: extreme impacts from moderate meteorological conditions. Environmental Research Letters, 15, pp. 034050.

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xxii. R Bintanja, K van der Wiel, EC van der Linden, J Reusen, L Bogerd, F Krikken, FM Selten (2020): Strong future increases in Arctic precipitation variability linked to poleward moisture transport. Science Advances, 6, pp. eaax6869.

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xxi. A Sebastian, A Gori, RB Blessing, K van der Wiel and B Bass (2019): Disentangling the impacts of human and environmental change on catchment response during Hurricane Harvey. Environmental Research Letters, 14, pp. 124023.

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xx. GA Vecchi, T Delworth, H Murakami, SD Underwood, AT Wittenberg, F Zeng, W Zhang, J Baldwin, K Bhatia, W Cooke, J He, SB Kapnick, T Knutson, G Villarini, K van der Wiel, W Anderson, V Balaji, J-H Chen, K Dixon, R Gudgel, L Harris, L Jia, NC Johnson, S-J Lin, M Liu, J Ng, A Rosati, J Smith, X Yang (2019): Tropical cyclone sensitivities to CO2 doubling: Roles of atmospheric resolution, synoptic variability and background climate changes. Climate Dynamics, 53, pp. 5999–6033.

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xix. K van der Wiel, HC Bloomfield, RW Lee, LP Stoop, R Blackport, JA Screen, FM Selten (2019): The influence of weather regimes on European renewable energy production and demand. Environmental Research Letters, 14, pp. 094010.

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xviii. R Blackport, JA Screen, K van der Wiel, R Bintanja (2019): Minimal influence of reduced Arctic sea ice on coincident cold winters in mid-latitudes. Nature Climate Change, 9, pp. 697-704.

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xvii. K van der Wiel, LP Stoop, BRH van Zuijlen, R Blackport, MA van den Broek, FM Selten (2019): Meteorological conditions leading to extreme low variable renewable energy production and extreme high energy shortfall. Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews, 111, pp. 261-275.

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xvi. K van der Wiel, N Wanders, FM Selten, MFP Bierkens (2019): Added value of large ensemble simulations for assessing extreme river discharge in a 2 °C warmer world. Geophysical Research Letters, 46, pp. 2093-2102.

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xv. S Philip, S Sparrow, SF Kew, K van der Wiel, N Wanders, R Singh, A Hassan, K Mohammed, H Javid, K Haustein, FEL Otto, F Hirpa, RH Rimi, AKM Saiful Islam, DCH Wallom, and GJ van Oldenborgh (2019): Attributing the 2017 Bangladesh floods from meteorological and hydrological perspectives. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 23, pp. 1409-1429. Highlighted article.

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xiv. K van der Wiel, SB Kapnick, GA Vecchi, JA Smith, PCD Milly, L Jia (2018): 100-year Lower Mississippi floods in a global climate model: characteristics and future changes. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 19, pp. 1547-1563.

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xiii. L Krishnamurthy, GA Vecchi, X Yang, K van der Wiel, V Balaji, SB Kapnick, L Jia, F Zeng, K Paffendorf, S Underwood (2018): Causes and probability of occurrence of extreme precipitation events like Chennai 2015. Journal of Climate, 31, pp. 3831–3848.

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xii. FEL Otto, K van der Wiel, GJ van Oldenborgh, S Philip, S Kew, P Uhe, H Cullen (2018): Climate change increases the probability of heavy rains in Northern England/Southern Scotland like those of storm Desmond - a real-time event attribution revisited. Environmental Research Letters, 13, pp. 024006.

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xi.  GJ van Oldenborgh, K van der Wiel, A Sebastian, R Singh, J Arrighi, FEL Otto, K Haustein, S Li, GA Vecchi, H Cullen (2017): Attribution of extreme rainfall from Hurricane Harvey, August 2017. Environmental Research Letters, 12, pp. 124009. Featured article.

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x. K van der Wiel, ST Gille, SG Llewellyn Smith, PF Linden, C Cenedese (2017): Characteristics of colliding sea breeze gravity current fronts: a laboratory study. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 143, pp. 1434-1441.

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ix. K van der Wiel, SB Kapnick, GJ van Oldenborgh, K Whan, S Philip, GA Vecchi, RK Singh, J Arrighi, H Cullen (2017): Rapid attribution of the August 2016 flood-inducing extreme precipitation in south Louisiana to climate change. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 21, pp. 897-921. Highlighted article.

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viii. K van der Wiel, SB Kapnick, GA Vecchi (2017): Shifting patterns of mild weather in response to projected radiative forcing. Climatic Change, 140, pp. 649-658.

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vii. K van der Wiel, SB Kapnick, GA Vecchi, WF Cooke, TL Delworth, L Jia, H Murakami, S Underwood, F Zeng (2016): The resolution dependence of contiguous U.S. precipitation extremes in response to CO2 forcing. Journal of Climate, 29, pp. 7991-8012.

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vi. MA Stiller-Reeve, C Heuzé, WT Ball, RH White, G Messori, K van der Wiel, I Medhaug, AH Eckes, A O'Callaghan, MJ Newland, SR Williams, M Kasoar, HE Wittmeier and V Kumer (2016): Improving together: better science writing through peer learning. Hydrology and Earth System Science, 20, pp. 2965-2973.

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v. K van der Wiel, AJ Matthews, MM Joshi, DP Stevens (2016): The influence of diabatic heating in the South Pacific Convergence Zone on Rossby wave propagation and the mean flow. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 142, pp. 901-910.

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iv. K van der Wiel, AJ Matthews, MM Joshi, DP Stevens (2016): Why the South Pacific Convergence Zone is diagonal. Climate Dynamics, 46, pp. 1683-1698.

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iii. K van der Wiel, AJ Matthews, DP Stevens, MM Joshi (2015): A dynamical framework for the origin of the diagonal South Pacific and South Atlantic Convergence Zones. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 141, pp. 1997-2010. Featured article.

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ii. MM Joshi, M Stringer, K van der Wiel, A O'Callaghan, S Fueglistaler (2015): IGCM4: A fast, parallel and flexible intermediate climate model. Geoscientific Model Development, 8, pp. 1157-1167.

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i. W Hazeleger, X Wang, C Severijns, S Ştefănescu, R Bintanja, A Sterl, K Wyser, T Semmler, S Yang, B van den Hurk, T van Noije, E van der Linden, K van der Wiel (2012): EC-Earth V2.2: description and validation of a new seamless earth system prediction model. Climate Dynamics, 39, pp. 2611-2629.

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Curriculum Vitae

A pdf-version of my C.V. is available here.

Contact

Dr Karin van der Wiel
Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute
Postbus 201
3730 AE De Bilt
Netherlands

Phone: +31 (0)30 2206 783       ← Temporarily working from home, hence no office phone.
E-mail: wiel@knmi.nl

Google Scholar: list of publications
Scopus: list of publications
ORCID: personal ID
ResearchGate: personal profile
LinkedIn: personal profile
Twitter: karin_vdwiel