Karin van der Wiel

Publicaties

Peer-reviewed

lvii.	RP Bartholomeus, K van der Wiel, AF van Loon, MHJ van Huijgevoort, MTH van Vliet, M Mens, S Muurling-van Geffen, N Wanders, W Pot (2023): Managing water across the flood–drought spectrum: Experiences from and challenges for the Netherlands. Cambridge Prisms: Water, 1, pp. e2. + abstract (EN) > pdf
lvi.	M Kolbe, JPJ Sonnemans, R Bintanja, EC van der Linden, K van der Wiel, K Whan, I Benedict (2023): Impact of Atmospheric Rivers on Future Poleward Moisture Transport and Arctic Climate in EC-Earth2. Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, 128, pp. e2023JD038926. + abstract (EN)
lv.	L Muntjewerf, R Bintanja, T Reerink, K van der Wiel (2023): The KNMI Large Ensemble Time Slice (KNMI–LENTIS). Geoscientific Model Development, 16, pp. 4581-4597. + abstract (EN) > pdf > twitter
liv.	WCH Chan, NW Arnell, G Darch, K Facer-Childs, TG Shepherd, M Tanguy, K van der Wiel (2023): Current and future risk of unprecedented hydrological droughts in Great Britain. Journal of Hydrology, 625, pp. 130074. + abstract (EN) > pdf > twitter
liii.	H Goulart, K van der Wiel, C Folberth, E Boere, B van den Hurk (2023): Increase of simultaneous soybean failures due to climate change. Earth's Future, 11, pp. e2022EF003106. + abstract (EN) > pdf
lii.	E Tschumi, S Lienert, A Bastos, P Ciais, K Gregor, F Joos, J Knauer, P Papastefanou, A Rahmig, K van der Wiel, K Williams, Y Xu, S Zähle, J Zscheischler (2023): Large variability in simulated response of vegetation composition and carbon dynamics to variations in drought-heat occurrence. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 128, pp. e2022JG007332. + abstract (EN) > pdf > twitter
li.	G Lenderink, H de Vries, E van Meijgaard, K van der Wiel, F Selten (2023): A perfect model study on the reliability of the added small-scale information in regional climate change projections. Climate Dynamics, 60, pp. 2563-2579. + abstract (EN) > pdf
l.	SM Hauswirth, K van der Wiel, MFP Bierkens, V Beijk, N Wanders (2023): Simulating hydrological extremes for different warming levels–combining large scale climate ensembles with local observation based machine learning models. Frontiers in Water, 5, pp. 11008108. + abstract (EN) > pdf > twitter
xlix.	K van der Wiel, TJ Batelaan, N Wanders (2023): Large increases of multi-year droughts in north-western Europe in a warmer climate. Climate Dynamics, 60, pp. 1781–1800. + abstract (EN) > pdf > twitter
xlviii.	SJ Bakke, N Wanders, K van der Wiel, LM Tallaksen (2023): A data-driven model for Fennoscandian wildfire danger. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 23, pp. 65-89. + abstract (EN) > pdf
xlvii.	H de Vries, G Lenderink, K van der Wiel, E van Meijgaard (2022): Quantifying the role of the large‑scale circulation on European summer precipitation change. Climate Dynamics, 59, pp. 2871-2886. + abstract (EN) > pdf
xlvi.	L van der Most, K van der Wiel, RMJ Benders, PW Gerbens-Leenes, P Kerkmans, R Bintanja (2022): Extreme Events in the European Renewable Power System: Validation of a Modeling Framework to Estimate Renewable Electricity Production and Demand from Meteorological Data. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 170, pp. 112987. + abstract (EN) > twitter
xlv.	T Zhang, K van der Wiel, T Wei, J Screen, X Yue, B Zheng, F Selten, R Bintanja, W Anderson, R Blackport, S Glomsrod, Y Liu, X Cui, X Yang, (2022): Increased wheat price spikes and larger economic inequality with 2°C global warming. One Earth, 5, pp. 907-916. + abstract (EN) > pdf > twitter
xliv.	MT Craig, J Wohland, LP Stoop, A Kies, B Pickering, HC Bloomfield, J Browell, M de Felice, CJ Dent, A Deroubaix, F Frischmuth, PLM Gonzalez, A Grochowicz, K Gruber, P Hartel, M Kittel, L Kotzur, I Labuhn, JK Lundquist, N Pflugradt, K van der Wiel, M Zeyringer, DJ Brayshaw (2022): Overcoming the disconnect between energy system and climate modelling. Joule, 6, pp. 1405-1417. + abstract (EN) > twitter
xliii.	E Tschumi, S Lienert, K van der Wiel, F Koos, J Zschleischler (2022): A climate database with varying drought-heat signatures for climate impact modelling. Geoscience Data Journal, 9, pp. 154-166. + abstract (EN) > pdf > twitter
xlii.	N Bloemendaal, H de Moel, AB Martinez, S Muis, ID Haigh, K van der Wiel, RJ Haarsma, PJ Ward, MJ Roberts, JCM Dullaart, JCJH Aerts (2022): A globally consistent local-scale assessment of future tropical cyclone risk. Science advances, 8, pp. eabm8438. + abstract (EN) > twitter
xli.	Y Boulaguiem, J Zschleischler, E Vignotto, K van der Wiel, S Engelke (2022): Modeling and simulating spatial extremes by combining extreme value theory with generative adversarial networks. Environmental Data Science, 1, pp. 1-18. + abstract (EN) > pdf > twitter
xl.	E Tschumi, S Lienert, K van der Wiel, F Koos, J Zschleischler (2022): The effects of varying drought-heat signatures on terrestrial carbon dynamics and vegetation composition. Biogeosciences, 19, pp. 1979-1993. + abstract (EN) > pdf > twitter
xxxix.	T Kelder, N Wanders, K van der Wiel, TI Marjoribanks, LJ Slater, RI Wilby, C Prudhomme (2022): Interpreting extreme climate impacts from large ensemble simulations—are they unseen or unrealistic?. Environmental Research Letters, 17, pp. 044052. - abstract (EN) > pdf > twitter Large-ensemble climate model simulations can provide deeper understanding of the characteristics and causes of extreme events than historical observations, due to their larger sample size. However, adequate evaluation of simulated 'unseen' events that are more extreme than those seen in historical records is complicated by observational uncertainties and natural variability. Consequently, conventional evaluation and correction methods cannot determine whether simulations outside observed variability are correct for the right physical reasons. Here, we introduce a three-step procedure to assess the realism of simulated extreme events based on the model properties (step 1), statistical features (step 2), and physical credibility of the extreme events (step 3). We illustrate these steps for a 2000 year Amazon monthly flood ensemble simulated by the global climate model EC-Earth and global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB. EC-Earth and PCR-GLOBWB are adequate for large-scale catchments like the Amazon, and have simulated 'unseen' monthly floods far outside observed variability. We find that the realism of these simulations cannot be statistically explained. For example, there could be legitimate discrepancies between simulations and observations resulting from infrequent temporal compounding of multiple flood peaks, rarely seen in observations. Physical credibility checks are crucial to assessing their realism and show that the unseen Amazon monthly floods were generated by an unrealistic bias correction of precipitation. We conclude that there is high sensitivity of simulations outside observed variability to the bias correction method, and that physical credibility checks are crucial to understanding what is driving the simulated extreme events. Understanding the driving mechanisms of unseen events may guide future research by uncovering key climate model deficiencies. They may also play a vital role in helping decision makers to anticipate unseen impacts by detecting plausible drivers.
xxxviii.	H Goulart, K van der Wiel, C Folberth, J Balkovic, B van den Hurk (2021): Weather-induced crop failure events under climate change: a storyline approach. Earth System Dynamics, 12, pp. 1503-1527. + abstract (EN) > pdf
xxxvii.	E Bevacqua, C De Michele, C Manning, A Couasnon, AFS Ribeiro, AM Ramos, E Vignotto, A Bastos, S Blesić, F Durante, J Hillier, SC Oliveira, JG Pinto, E Ragno, P Rivoire, K Saunders, K van der Wiel, W Wu, T Zhang, J Zscheischler (2021): Guidelines for studying diverse types of compound weather and climate events. Earth's Future, 9, pp. e2021EF002340. + abstract (EN) > pdf
xxxvi.	K van der Wiel, G Lenderink, H de Vries (2021): Physical storylines of future European drought events like 2018 based on ensemble climate modelling. Weather and Climate Extremes, 33, pp. 100350. + abstract (EN) > pdf > twitter
xxxv.	R Sperna Weiland, K van der Wiel, FM Selten, D Coumou (2021): Intransitive atmosphere dynamics leading to persistent hot-dry or cold-wet European summers. Journal of Climate, 34, pp. 6303-6317. + abstract (EN) > pdf > twitter
xxxiv.	GJ van Oldenborgh, K van der Wiel, S Kew, S Philip, F Otto, R Vautard, A King, F Lott, J Arrighi, R Singh, M van Aalst (2021): Pathways and pitfalls in extreme event attribution. Climatic Change, 166, pp. 13. + abstract (EN) > pdf > twitter
xxxiii.	G van Kempen, K van der Wiel, LA Melsen (2021): The impact of hydrological model structure on the simulation of extreme runoff events. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 21, pp. 961-976. + abstract (EN) > pdf > twitter
xxxii.	J Vogel, P Rivoire, C Deidda, L Rahimi, CA Sauter, E Tschumi, K van der Wiel, T Zhang, J Zschleischler (2021): Identifying meteorological drivers of extreme impacts: an application to simulated crop yields. Earth System Dynamics, 12, pp. 151-172. + abstract (EN) > pdf > twitter
xxxi.	PNJ Bonekamp, N Wanders, K van der Wiel, AF Lutz, WW Immerzeel (2021): Using large ensemble modelling to derive future changes in mountain specific climate indicators in a 2 °C and 3 °C warmer world in High Mountain Asia. International Journal of Climatology, 41, pp. E964-E979. + abstract (EN) > pdf > twitter
xxx.	SF Kew, SY Philip, M Hauser, M Hobbins, N Wanders, GJ van Oldenborgh, K van der Wiel, TIE Veldkamp, J Kimutai, C Funk, FEL Otto (2021): Impact of precipitation and increasing temperatures on drought in eastern Africa. Earth System Dynamics, 12, pp. 17-35. + abstract (EN) > pdf
xxix.	K van der Wiel, R Bintanja (2021): Contribution of climatic changes in mean and variability to monthly temperature and precipitation extremes. Communications Earth and Environment, 2, pp. 1-11. + abstract (EN) > pdf > twitter
xxviii.	S Vijverberg, M Schmeits, K van der Wiel, D Coumou (2020): Sub-seasonal statistical forecasts of eastern United States hot temperature events. Monthly Weather Review, 148, pp. 4799-4822. + abstract (EN) > twitter
xxvii.	SY Philip, SF Kew, GJ van Oldenborgh, F Otto, R Vautard, K van der Wiel, A King, F Lott, J Arrighi, R Singh, M van Aalst (2020): A protocol for probabilistic extreme event attribution analyses. Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography, 6, pp. 177-203. + abstract (EN) > pdf > twitter
xxvi.	JR Brown, M Lengaigne, BR Lintner, MJ Widlansky, K van der Wiel, C Dutheil, BK Linsley, AJ Matthews, J Renwick (2020): South Pacific Convergence Zone dynamics, variability, and impacts in a changing climate. Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, 1, pp. 530-543. + abstract (EN) > twitter
xxv.	SY Philip, SF Kew, K van der Wiel, N Wanders, GJ van Oldenborgh (2020): Regional differentiation in climate change induced drought trends in the Netherlands. Environmental Research Letters, 15, pp. 094081. + abstract (EN) > pdf > twitter
xxiv.	Nanditha JS, K van der Wiel, U Bhatia, D Stone, FM Selten, V Mishra (2020): A seven-fold rise in the probability of exceeding the observed hottest summer in India in a 2°C warmer world. Environmental Research Letters, 15, pp. 044028. + abstract (EN) > pdf
xxiii.	K van der Wiel, FM Selten, R Bintanja, R Blackport, JA Screen (2020): Ensemble climate-impact modelling: extreme impacts from moderate meteorological conditions. Environmental Research Letters, 15, pp. 034050. + abstract (EN) > pdf > twitter
xxii.	R Bintanja, K van der Wiel, EC van der Linden, J Reusen, L Bogerd, F Krikken, FM Selten (2020): Strong future increases in Arctic precipitation variability linked to poleward moisture transport. Science Advances, 6, pp. eaax6869. + abstract (EN) > pdf > twitter
xxi.	A Sebastian, A Gori, RB Blessing, K van der Wiel and B Bass (2019): Disentangling the impacts of human and environmental change on catchment response during Hurricane Harvey. Environmental Research Letters, 14, pp. 124023. + abstract (EN) > pdf > twitter
xx.	GA Vecchi, T Delworth, H Murakami, SD Underwood, AT Wittenberg, F Zeng, W Zhang, J Baldwin, K Bhatia, W Cooke, J He, SB Kapnick, T Knutson, G Villarini, K van der Wiel, W Anderson, V Balaji, J-H Chen, K Dixon, R Gudgel, L Harris, L Jia, NC Johnson, S-J Lin, M Liu, J Ng, A Rosati, J Smith, X Yang (2019): Tropical cyclone sensitivities to CO2 doubling: Roles of atmospheric resolution, synoptic variability and background climate changes. Climate Dynamics, 53, pp. 5999–6033. + abstract (EN) > pdf > twitter
xix.	K van der Wiel, HC Bloomfield, RW Lee, LP Stoop, R Blackport, JA Screen, FM Selten (2019): The influence of weather regimes on European renewable energy production and demand. Environmental Research Letters, 14, pp. 094010. + abstract (EN) > pdf > twitter
xviii.	R Blackport, JA Screen, K van der Wiel, R Bintanja (2019): Minimal influence of reduced Arctic sea ice on coincident cold winters in mid-latitudes. Nature Climate Change, 9, pp. 697-704. + abstract (EN) > twitter
xvii.	K van der Wiel, LP Stoop, BRH van Zuijlen, R Blackport, MA van den Broek, FM Selten (2019): Meteorological conditions leading to extreme low variable renewable energy production and extreme high energy shortfall. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 111, pp. 261-275. + abstract (EN) > pdf > twitter
xvi.	K van der Wiel, N Wanders, FM Selten, MFP Bierkens (2019): Added value of large ensemble simulations for assessing extreme river discharge in a 2 °C warmer world. Geophysical Research Letters, 46, pp. 2093-2102. + abstract (EN) > pdf > twitter
xv.	S Philip, S Sparrow, SF Kew, K van der Wiel, N Wanders, R Singh, A Hassan, K Mohammed, H Javid, K Haustein, FEL Otto, F Hirpa, RH Rimi, AKM Saiful Islam, DCH Wallom, and GJ van Oldenborgh (2019): Attributing the 2017 Bangladesh floods from meteorological and hydrological perspectives. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 23, pp. 1409-1429. Highlighted article. + abstract (EN) > pdf > twitter
xiv.	K van der Wiel, SB Kapnick, GA Vecchi, JA Smith, PCD Milly, L Jia (2018): 100-year Lower Mississippi floods in a global climate model: characteristics and future changes. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 19, pp. 1547-1563. + abstract (EN) > pdf > twitter
xiii.	L Krishnamurthy, GA Vecchi, X Yang, K van der Wiel, V Balaji, SB Kapnick, L Jia, F Zeng, K Paffendorf, S Underwood (2018): Causes and probability of occurrence of extreme precipitation events like Chennai 2015. Journal of Climate, 31, pp. 3831–3848. + abstract (EN)
xii.	FEL Otto, K van der Wiel, GJ van Oldenborgh, S Philip, S Kew, P Uhe, H Cullen (2018): Climate change increases the probability of heavy rains in Northern England/Southern Scotland like those of storm Desmond - a real-time event attribution revisited. Environmental Research Letters, 13, pp. 024006. + abstract (EN) > pdf
xi.	GJ van Oldenborgh, K van der Wiel, A Sebastian, R Singh, J Arrighi, FEL Otto, K Haustein, S Li, GA Vecchi, H Cullen (2017): Attribution of extreme rainfall from Hurricane Harvey, August 2017. Environmental Research Letters, 12, pp. 124009. Featured article. + abstract (EN) > pdf
x.	K van der Wiel, ST Gille, SG Llewellyn Smith, PF Linden, C Cenedese (2017): Characteristics of colliding sea breeze gravity current fronts: a laboratory study. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 143, pp. 1434-1441. + abstract (EN)
ix.	K van der Wiel, SB Kapnick, GJ van Oldenborgh, K Whan, S Philip, GA Vecchi, RK Singh, J Arrighi, H Cullen (2017): Rapid attribution of the August 2016 flood-inducing extreme precipitation in south Louisiana to climate change. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 21, pp. 897-921. Highlighted article. + abstract (EN) > pdf
viii.	K van der Wiel, SB Kapnick, GA Vecchi (2017): Shifting patterns of mild weather in response to projected radiative forcing. Climatic Change, 140, pp. 649-658. + abstract (EN) > pdf
vii.	K van der Wiel, SB Kapnick, GA Vecchi, WF Cooke, TL Delworth, L Jia, H Murakami, S Underwood, F Zeng (2016): The resolution dependence of contiguous U.S. precipitation extremes in response to CO2 forcing. Journal of Climate, 29, pp. 7991-8012. + abstract (EN) > pdf
vi.	MA Stiller-Reeve, C Heuzé, WT Ball, RH White, G Messori, K van der Wiel, I Medhaug, AH Eckes, A O'Callaghan, MJ Newland, SR Williams, M Kasoar, HE Wittmeier and V Kumer (2016): Improving together: better science writing through peer learning. Hydrology and Earth System Science, 20, pp. 2965-2973. + abstract (EN) > pdf
v.	K van der Wiel, AJ Matthews, MM Joshi, DP Stevens (2016): The influence of diabatic heating in the South Pacific Convergence Zone on Rossby wave propagation and the mean flow. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 142, pp. 901-910. + abstract (EN)
iv.	K van der Wiel, AJ Matthews, MM Joshi, DP Stevens (2016): Why the South Pacific Convergence Zone is diagonal. Climate Dynamics, 46, pp. 1683-1698. + abstract (EN)
iii.	K van der Wiel, AJ Matthews, DP Stevens, MM Joshi (2015): A dynamical framework for the origin of the diagonal South Pacific and South Atlantic Convergence Zones. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 141, pp. 1997-2010. Featured article. + abstract (EN) > pdf
ii.	MM Joshi, M Stringer, K van der Wiel, A O'Callaghan, S Fueglistaler (2015): IGCM4: A fast, parallel and flexible intermediate climate model. Geoscientific Model Development, 8, pp. 1157-1167. + abstract (EN) > pdf
i.	W Hazeleger, X Wang, C Severijns, S Ştefănescu, R Bintanja, A Sterl, K Wyser, T Semmler, S Yang, B van den Hurk, T van Noije, E van der Linden, K van der Wiel (2012): EC-Earth V2.2: description and validation of a new seamless earth system prediction model. Climate Dynamics, 39, pp. 2611-2629. + abstract (EN)

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Karin van der Wiel

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