Karin van der Wiel

www.karinvanderwiel.nl | wiel@knmi.nl | (030) 2206 783




Hoi, ik ben Karin.

Ik werk op het Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut (KNMI) als wetenschappelijk onderzoeker.

Mijn onderzoek gaat onder andere over extreem weer, en de invloed van het weer op de samenleving. Bijvoorbeeld extreme neerslag en resulterende overstromingen, of de gevoeligheid van een hernieuwbaar energiesysteem voor variabiliteit van het weer. Verder werk ik aan een update van de KNMI klimaatscenarios, die in 2021 en 2023 uit moeten komen.

Met mijn onderzoek hoop ik bij te dragen aan onze kennis van het weer en klimaat op aarde op een manier die nuttig is voor de samenleving.

Aarzel niet om contact te zoeken met vragen, verzoeken om PDFs van mijn publicaties of iets anders. Bedankt voor je bezoek!


>>>  Klimaatstreepjescode ('warming stripes') voor Nederland: hier.


Onderzoeksprojecten

Groot ensemble modelleren

Hernieuwbare energie transitie

Extreme neerslag & overstromingen

Mild weer

Diagonale convergentie zones

Zeewind convergentie


Publicaties

In druk

l. G Lenderink, H de Vries, E van Meijgaard, K van der Wiel, F Selten : A perfect model study on the reliability of the added small-scale information in regional climate change projections. Climate Dynamics.

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The issue of the added value (AV) of high resolution regional climate models is complex and still strongly debated. Here, we approach AV in a perfect model framework within a 16-member single model initial condition ensemble with the regional climate model RACMO2 embedded in the global climate model EC-Earth2.3. In addition, we also used an ensemble produced by a pseudo global warming (PGW) approach. Results for winter temperature and precipitation are investigated from two different perspectives: (1) a signal-to-noise perspective analysing the systematic response to changing emission forcings versus internal climate variability, and (2) a prediction perspective aimed at predicting a 30-year future climate state. Systematic changes in winter temperature and precipitation contain fine-scale response patterns, but in particular for precipitation these patterns are small compared to internal variability. Therefore, single members of the ensemble provide only limited information on these systematic patterns. However, they can be estimated more reliably from PGW members because of the stronger constraints on internal variability. From the prediction perspective, we analysed AV of fine-scale information by comparing three prediction pairs. This analysis shows that there is AV in the fine-scale information for temperature, yet for precipitation adding fine-scale changes generally deteriorates the predictions. Using only the large-scale change (without fine scales) from a single ensemble member as a delta change on top of the present-day climate state, already provides a robust estimate of the future climate state and therefore can be used as a simple benchmark to measure added value.

Peer-reviewed

xlix. K van der Wiel, TJ Batelaan, N Wanders (2023): Large increases of multi-year droughts in north-western Europe in a warmer climate. Climate Dynamics, 60, pp. 1781–1800.

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xlviii. SJ Bakke, N Wanders, K van der Wiel, LM Tallaksen (2023): A data-driven model for Fennoscandian wildfire danger. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 23, pp. 65-89.

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xlvii. H de Vries, G Lenderink, K van der Wiel, E van Meijgaard (2022): Quantifying the role of the large‑scale circulation on European summer precipitation change. Climate Dynamics, 59, pp. 2871-2886.

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xlvi. L van der Most, K van der Wiel, RMJ Benders, PW Gerbens-Leenes, P Kerkmans, R Bintanja (2022): Extreme Events in the European Renewable Power System: Validation of a Modeling Framework to Estimate Renewable Electricity Production and Demand from Meteorological Data. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 170, pp. 112987.

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xlv. T Zhang, K van der Wiel, T Wei, J Screen, X Yue, B Zheng, F Selten, R Bintanja, W Anderson, R Blackport, S Glomsrod, Y Liu, X Cui, X Yang, (2022): Increased wheat price spikes and larger economic inequality with 2°C global warming. One Earth, 5, pp. 907-916.

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xliv. MT Craig, J Wohland, LP Stoop, A Kies, B Pickering, HC Bloomfield, J Browell, M de Felice, CJ Dent, A Deroubaix, F Frischmuth, PLM Gonzalez, A Grochowicz, K Gruber, P Hartel, M Kittel, L Kotzur, I Labuhn, JK Lundquist, N Pflugradt, K van der Wiel, M Zeyringer, DJ Brayshaw (2022): Overcoming the disconnect between energy system and climate modelling. Joule, 6, pp. 1405-1417.

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xliii. E Tschumi, S Lienert, K van der Wiel, F Koos, J Zschleischler (2022): A climate database with varying drought-heat signatures for climate impact modelling. Geoscience Data Journal, 9, pp. 154-166.

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xlii. N Bloemendaal, H de Moel, AB Martinez, S Muis, ID Haigh, K van der Wiel, RJ Haarsma, PJ Ward, MJ Roberts, JCM Dullaart, JCJH Aerts (2022): A globally consistent local-scale assessment of future tropical cyclone risk. Science advances, 8, pp. eabm8438.

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xli. Y Boulaguiem, J Zschleischler, E Vignotto, K van der Wiel, S Engelke (2022): Modeling and simulating spatial extremes by combining extreme value theory with generative adversarial networks. Environmental Data Science, 1, pp. 1-18.

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xl. E Tschumi, S Lienert, K van der Wiel, F Koos, J Zschleischler (2022): The effects of varying drought-heat signatures on terrestrial carbon dynamics and vegetation composition. Biogeosciences, 19, pp. 1979-1993.

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xxxix. T Kelder, N Wanders, K van der Wiel, TI Marjoribanks, LJ Slater, RI Wilby, C Prudhomme (2022): Interpreting extreme climate impacts from large ensemble simulations—are they unseen or unrealistic?. Environmental Research Letters, 17, pp. 044052.

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xxxviii.  H Goulart, K van der Wiel, C Folberth, J Balkovic, B van den Hurk (2021): Weather-induced crop failure events under climate change: a storyline approach. Earth System Dynamics, 12, pp. 1503-1527.

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xxxvii. E Bevacqua, C De Michele, C Manning, A Couasnon, AFS Ribeiro, AM Ramos, E Vignotto, A Bastos, S Blesić, F Durante, J Hillier, SC Oliveira, JG Pinto, E Ragno, P Rivoire, K Saunders, K van der Wiel, W Wu, T Zhang, J Zscheischler (2021): Guidelines for studying diverse types of compound weather and climate events. Earth's Future, 9, pp. e2021EF002340.

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xxxvi. K van der Wiel, G Lenderink, H de Vries (2021): Physical storylines of future European drought events like 2018 based on ensemble climate modelling. Weather and Climate Extremes, 33, pp. 100350.

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xxxv. R Sperna Weiland, K van der Wiel, F M Selten, D Coumou (2021): Intransitive atmosphere dynamics leading to persistent hot-dry or cold-wet European summers. Journal of Climate, 34, pp. 6303-6317.

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xxxiv. GJ van Oldenborgh, K van der Wiel, S Kew, S Philip, F Otto, R Vautard, A King, F Lott, J Arrighi, R Singh, M van Aalst (2021): Pathways and pitfalls in extreme event attribution. Climatic Change, 166, pp. 13.

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xxxiii. G van Kempen, K van der Wiel, LA Melsen (2021): The impact of hydrological model structure on the simulation of extreme runoff events. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 21, pp. 961-976.

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xxxii. J Vogel, P Rivoire, C Deidda, L Rahimi, CA Sauter, E Tschumi, K van der Wiel, T Zhang, J Zschleischler (2021): Identifying meteorological drivers of extreme impacts: an application to simulated crop yields. Earth System Dynamics, 12, pp. 151-172.

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xxxi. PNJ Bonekamp, N Wanders, K van der Wiel, AF Lutz, WW Immerzeel (2021): Using large ensemble modelling to derive future changes in mountain specific climate indicators in a 2 °C and 3 °C warmer world in High Mountain Asia. International Journal of Climatology, 41, pp. E964-E979.

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xxx. SF Kew, SY Philip, M Hauser, M Hobbins, N Wanders, GJ van Oldenborgh, K van der Wiel, TIE Veldkamp, J Kimutai, C Funk, FEL Otto (2021): Impact of precipitation and increasing temperatures on drought in eastern Africa. Earth System Dynamics, 12, pp. 17-35.

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xxix. K van der Wiel, R Bintanja (2021): Contribution of climatic changes in mean and variability to monthly temperature and precipitation extremes. Communications Earth and Environment, 2, pp. 1-11.

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xxviii. S Vijverberg, M Schmeits, K van der Wiel, D Coumou (2020): Sub-seasonal statistical forecasts of eastern United States hot temperature events. Monthly Weather Review, 148, pp. 4799-4822.

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xxvii. SY Philip, SF Kew, GJ van Oldenborgh, F Otto, R Vautard, K van der Wiel, A King, F Lott, J Arrighi, R Singh, M van Aalst (2020): A protocol for probabilistic extreme event attribution analyses. Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography, 6, pp. 177-203.

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xxvi.  JR Brown, M Lengaigne, BR Lintner, MJ Widlansky, K van der Wiel, C Dutheil, BK Linsley, AJ Matthews, J Renwick (2020): South Pacific Convergence Zone dynamics, variability, and impacts in a changing climate. Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, 1, pp. 530-543.

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xxv. SY Philip, SF Kew, K van der Wiel, N Wanders, GJ van Oldenborgh (2020): Regional differentiation in climate change induced drought trends in the Netherlands. Environmental Research Letters, 15, pp. 094081.

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xxiv. Nanditha JS, K van der Wiel, U Bhatia, D Stone, FM Selten, V Mishra (2020): A seven-fold rise in the probability of exceeding the observed hottest summer in India in a 2°C warmer world. Environmental Research Letters, 15, pp. 044028.

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xxiii. K van der Wiel, FM Selten, R Bintanja, R Blackport, JA Screen (2020): Ensemble climate-impact modelling: extreme impacts from moderate meteorological conditions. Environmental Research Letters, 15, pp. 034050.

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xxii. R Bintanja, K van der Wiel, EC van der Linden, J Reusen, L Bogerd, F Krikken, FM Selten (2020): Strong future increases in Arctic precipitation variability linked to poleward moisture transport. Science Advances, 6, pp. eaax6869.

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xxi. A Sebastian, A Gori, RB Blessing, K van der Wiel and B Bass (2019): Disentangling the impacts of human and environmental change on catchment response during Hurricane Harvey. Environmental Research Letters, 14, pp. 124023.

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xx. GA Vecchi, T Delworth, H Murakami, SD Underwood, AT Wittenberg, F Zeng, W Zhang, J Baldwin, K Bhatia, W Cooke, J He, SB Kapnick, T Knutson, G Villarini, K van der Wiel, W Anderson, V Balaji, J-H Chen, K Dixon, R Gudgel, L Harris, L Jia, NC Johnson, S-J Lin, M Liu, J Ng, A Rosati, J Smith, X Yang (2019): Tropical cyclone sensitivities to CO2 doubling: Roles of atmospheric resolution, synoptic variability and background climate changes. Climate Dynamics, 53, pp. 5999–6033.

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xix. K van der Wiel, HC Bloomfield, RW Lee, LP Stoop, R Blackport, JA Screen, FM Selten (2019): The influence of weather regimes on European renewable energy production and demand. Environmental Research Letters, 14, pp. 094010.

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xviii. R Blackport, JA Screen, K van der Wiel, R Bintanja (2019): Minimal influence of reduced Arctic sea ice on coincident cold winters in mid-latitudes. Nature Climate Change, 9, pp. 697-704.

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xvii. K van der Wiel, LP Stoop, BRH van Zuijlen, R Blackport, MA van den Broek, FM Selten (2019): Meteorological conditions leading to extreme low variable renewable energy production and extreme high energy shortfall. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 111, pp. 261-275.

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xvi. K van der Wiel, N Wanders, FM Selten, MFP Bierkens (2019): Added value of large ensemble simulations for assessing extreme river discharge in a 2 °C warmer world. Geophysical Research Letters, 46, pp. 2093-2102.

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xv. S Philip, S Sparrow, SF Kew, K van der Wiel, N Wanders, R Singh, A Hassan, K Mohammed, H Javid, K Haustein, FEL Otto, F Hirpa, RH Rimi, AKM Saiful Islam, DCH Wallom, and GJ van Oldenborgh (2019): Attributing the 2017 Bangladesh floods from meteorological and hydrological perspectives. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 23, pp. 1409-1429. Highlighted article.

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xiv. K van der Wiel, SB Kapnick, GA Vecchi, JA Smith, PCD Milly, L Jia (2018): 100-year Lower Mississippi floods in a global climate model: characteristics and future changes. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 19, pp. 1547-1563.

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xiii. L Krishnamurthy, GA Vecchi, X Yang, K van der Wiel, V Balaji, SB Kapnick, L Jia, F Zeng, K Paffendorf, S Underwood (2018): Causes and probability of occurrence of extreme precipitation events like Chennai 2015. Journal of Climate, 31, pp. 3831–3848.

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xii. FEL Otto, K van der Wiel, GJ van Oldenborgh, S Philip, S Kew, P Uhe, H Cullen (2018): Climate change increases the probability of heavy rains in Northern England/Southern Scotland like those of storm Desmond - a real-time event attribution revisited. Environmental Research Letters, 13, pp. 024006.

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xi.  GJ van Oldenborgh, K van der Wiel, A Sebastian, R Singh, J Arrighi, FEL Otto, K Haustein, S Li, GA Vecchi, H Cullen (2017): Attribution of extreme rainfall from Hurricane Harvey, August 2017. Environmental Research Letters, 12, pp. 124009. Featured article.

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x. K van der Wiel, ST Gille, SG Llewellyn Smith, PF Linden, C Cenedese (2017): Characteristics of colliding sea breeze gravity current fronts: a laboratory study. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 143, pp. 1434-1441.

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ix. K van der Wiel, SB Kapnick, GJ van Oldenborgh, K Whan, S Philip, GA Vecchi, RK Singh, J Arrighi, H Cullen (2017): Rapid attribution of the August 2016 flood-inducing extreme precipitation in south Louisiana to climate change. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 21, pp. 897-921. Highlighted article.

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viii. K van der Wiel, SB Kapnick, GA Vecchi (2017): Shifting patterns of mild weather in response to projected radiative forcing. Climatic Change, 140, pp. 649-658.

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vii. K van der Wiel, SB Kapnick, GA Vecchi, WF Cooke, TL Delworth, L Jia, H Murakami, S Underwood, F Zeng (2016): The resolution dependence of contiguous U.S. precipitation extremes in response to CO2 forcing. Journal of Climate, 29, pp. 7991-8012.

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vi. MA Stiller-Reeve, C Heuzé, WT Ball, RH White, G Messori, K van der Wiel, I Medhaug, AH Eckes, A O'Callaghan, MJ Newland, SR Williams, M Kasoar, HE Wittmeier and V Kumer (2016): Improving together: better science writing through peer learning. Hydrology and Earth System Science, 20, pp. 2965-2973.

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v. K van der Wiel, AJ Matthews, MM Joshi, DP Stevens (2016): The influence of diabatic heating in the South Pacific Convergence Zone on Rossby wave propagation and the mean flow. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 142, pp. 901-910.

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iv. K van der Wiel, AJ Matthews, MM Joshi, DP Stevens (2016): Why the South Pacific Convergence Zone is diagonal. Climate Dynamics, 46, pp. 1683-1698.

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iii. K van der Wiel, AJ Matthews, DP Stevens, MM Joshi (2015): A dynamical framework for the origin of the diagonal South Pacific and South Atlantic Convergence Zones. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 141, pp. 1997-2010. Featured article.

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ii. MM Joshi, M Stringer, K van der Wiel, A O'Callaghan, S Fueglistaler (2015): IGCM4: A fast, parallel and flexible intermediate climate model. Geoscientific Model Development, 8, pp. 1157-1167.

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i. W Hazeleger, X Wang, C Severijns, S Ştefănescu, R Bintanja, A Sterl, K Wyser, T Semmler, S Yang, B van den Hurk, T van Noije, E van der Linden, K van der Wiel (2012): EC-Earth V2.2: description and validation of a new seamless earth system prediction model. Climate Dynamics, 39, pp. 2611-2629.

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+ Meer publicaties

Curriculum Vitae

Een pdf-versie van mijn C.V. is hier beschikbaar.

Contact

Dr. ir. Karin van der Wiel
Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut
Postbus 201
3730 AE De Bilt

Telefoon: (030) 2206 783      ← Ik werk tijdelijk vanuit huis, daarom geen kantoortelefoon.
E-mail: wiel@knmi.nl

Google Scholar: lijst van publicaties
Scopus: lijst van publicaties
ORCID: persoonlijk ID
ResearchGate: persoonlijk profiel
LinkedIn: persoonlijk profiel
Twitter: karin_vdwiel